---------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================ PROJECT 10073 RECORD CARD -- TRANSCRIPTION File: 1953-03-6384264-Elmira-NewYork.pdf Transcribed by Claude Sonnet 4.6 for GlitchyMatrix.com/bluebook/ ================================================================ [Note: This case is documented on the FTD SEP 63 0-329 (TDE) form. The form post-dates the 1953 sighting by a decade; this card was created retroactively during later FTD/Blue Book processing. The FTD form's Field 10 is CONCLUSION and Field 11 is BRIEF SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS -- different from the standard ATIC 329 layout. Standard GMA template field numbers applied below where content corresponds.] FIELD 1 -- DATE: 21 March 1953 FIELD 2 -- LOCATION: Elmira, New York [GOC Post PN 00 Black, grid position PN 0408] FIELD 3 -- DATE-TIME GROUP: Local 1505L EST / GMT 21/2005Z [1505 EST confirmed by AF Form 112; 1505 + 5 = 2005Z, consistent] FIELD 4 -- TYPE OF OBSERVATION: Ground-Visual [X] Ground-Radar [ ] Air-Visual [ ] Air-Intercept Radar [ ] FIELD 5 -- PHOTOS: No FIELD 6 -- SOURCE: Civilian (GOC Member) FIELD 7 -- LENGTH OF OBS: Few seconds FIELD 8 -- NUMBER OF OBJECTS: Six FIELD 9 -- COURSE: North FIELD 10 -- BRIEF SUMMARY: [FTD form Field 11 / Brief Summary and Analysis:] Six disc shaped objects close together traveled at a high speed at high altitude in N direction. Position of objects was directly overhead. Fighters in general vicinity were ordered to investigate but no objects were sighted after orbiting the area for approx 20 minutes. Winds aloft were from 180 deg at 10 knots. Objects were not picked up on radar. FIELD 11 -- COMMENTS: [Not separately delineated from Field 10 on this FTD form variant.] FIELD 12 -- CONCLUSIONS: [ ] Was balloon [ ] Probably balloon [ ] Possibly balloon [ ] Was aircraft [ ] Probably aircraft [ ] Possibly aircraft [ ] Was astronomical [ ] Probably astronomical [ ] Possibly astronomical [ ] Other: [specify] [ ] Insufficient data for evaluation [X] Unidentified [Note: FTD form Field 10 reads "UNIDENTIFIED" without checkbox structure. AF Form 112 evaluation field reads "UNKNOWN." Both designations are consistent.] Form: FTD SEP 63 0-329 (TDE) [Note: FTD September 1963 variant applied retroactively to a March 1953 sighting. Physical evidence: No.] Supplemental documents present (in order of appearance): F-1/F-2: Two scans of the FTD SEP 63 0-329 (TDE) record card. Same content. F-3 through F-6: FLYOBRPT military message (two-page, four scans -- two duplicate scan sets). Reference designation ACL 03083. Transmitted P 2314302 (23rd at 1430Z). DOWNGRADED AT 3 YEAR INTERVALS; DECLASSIFIED AFTER 12 YEARS. DOD DIR 5200.10. From: Intelligence Officer, 655th ACW SQ, Watertown, NY (JEPSN). To: JEPHQ/DIR OF INTELLIGENCE HQ USAF WASH DC JEDEN/CG ENT AFB COLORADO SPRINGS COLO JEPWP/AIR TECH INTELL CEN WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH JEPNB/CG EADF STEWART AFB NEWBURGH NY JEPSN/CG 32D A/D /DEF/ HANCOCK FLD EASTWOOD STA 6 SYR NY JEPEO/CO 4711TH DEF WG PRESQUE ISLE AFB ME Message content (numbered items): 1: SIX/6/ DISC TYPE OBJECTS NO SPECIAL FORMATION OTHER THAN BEING CLOSE TOGETHER DISCS MOVED RATHER FAST TOWARD NORTH AT A VERY HIGH ALTITUDE 2: 1505 EST 21 MARCH 1953 OBSERVED FOR ONLY SEVERAL SECONDS 3: VISUAL WITH USE OF BINOCULARS 4: OBSERVERS LOCATED AT GOC ELMIRA NEW YORK PN 0408 DISCS WERE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND WERE VERY HIGH 5: OBSERVED BY MR HOLUP OF GOC POST NU PN 00 BLACK ELMIRA NY AND JACK ONEIL ALSO OF ELMIRA [Note: Observer names appear unredacted in message. See POST-FILE NOTES.] 6: WEATHER WAS CLEAR WITH WINDS SOUTH AT 10 7: UNKNOWN 8: UNKNOWN 9: FIGHTERS IN GENERAL VICINITY WERE ORDERED TO INVESTIGATE HOWEVER NO UNKNOWN OBJECTS WERE SIGHTED AFTER ORBITING IN AREA FOR APPROX- IMATELY 20 MIN 10: NEGATIVE Handwritten note on message: "Have asked for AF Form 112." Handwritten annotation at top: "1.atta / 2.ate / 3.C.files." ATIC stamp dated 1953 MAR 23. F-7/F-8: AF Form 112-Part I, Air Intelligence Information Report (two scans). UNCLASSIFIED (originally restricted; DOWNGRADED AT 3 YEAR INTERVALS; DECLASSIFIED AFTER 12 YEARS. DOD DIR 5200.10). Country: U.S.A. Subject: FLYORRPT (PROJECT "BLUE BOOK"). Area: Elmira, New York / PN 0408. From (Agency): 655th ACM Sq., Watertown, New York. Date of Information: 1505 EST, 21 March 1953. Evaluation: UNKNOWN. Source: GOC POST PN 00 BLACK, ELMIRA, NEW YORK. References: AF Form 112, 23 March 1953; AFL 200-5 dated 29 April 1952; OUR MSG ACL 03083, 23 March 1953. Approved by: Thomas C. Schiebel, Captain, USAF, Intelligence Officer. Distribution: TO: C/S, ARTC, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Key narrative content: "At approximately 1510 EST, 21 March 1953, the following information was received by this station (P-49) from GOC Post # PN 00 Black, located at PN 0408, Elmira, New York: [six disc type objects directly overhead, close together, northerly direction, very high altitude, several seconds, binoculars used.] Winds were from 180 degrees at 10 knots per hour. Observers did not notify this station that the investigating aircraft were noticed. It was assumed that they did not sight them. Negative aircraft were in the area, so it was not possible that the jets actually caused the report. Negative jets were in area of sighting at time of sighting. Two aircraft were sent down to investigate but found no joy. The authenticity of this report is unknown since observation was for such a short period of time -- several seconds. These objects were not picked up on radar at this site at any time." Handwritten note below signature: "Possibility -- balloons, being carried with the wind, or paper, etc." F-9/F-10: Joint Messageform (two scans). UNCLASSIFIED (handwritten "unclassified" overprint, signed "Bma"). Date-time group: 2518157 MAR 53 (25th at 1815Z). From: CO ATIC. To: Intelligence Officer 655th ACW SQ Watertown NY. Drafter: 1/Lt H. M. Olsson. Official Title: Robert C. Brown, Major, USAF, Air Adjutant General. Content (FROM: AFOIR-ATIAA-3-11-E): "Reursmsg ACL 03088 on an unidentified aerial object sighting made by GOC members Holup and O'Neil of Elmira, New York, on 21 Mar 53 at 1505EST. Project Blue Book requests you submit AF Form 112 as per AFL 200-5 with special attention to the following items: 1) Were the winds aloft at time of sighting from 180°? 2) Did observers notice jet aircraft sent to investigate? 3) Is it possible that jet aircraft actually caused the report? How many jets were in area of sighting? In reply cite Project Blue Book." [Note: ATIC reference number is ACL 03088 in this message; original report was ACL 03083. Minor transcription variance between documents.] ================================================================ SEARCH INDEX TERMS ================================================================ Elmira New-York Chemung-County 1953 March GOC Ground-Observer- Corps civilian two-witnesses disc six-objects binoculars northward high-altitude high-speed few-seconds no-radar fighter-intercept negative wind-south balloon-hypothesis unidentified 655th-ACW-SQ Watertown ATIC EADF Stewart-AFB ENT-AFB Ruppelt-era Blue-Book AF-Form-112 FTD-329 retroactive Holup O-Neil Presque-Isle Hancock-Field JEPSN ================================================================ CASE ANALYSIS -- Claude Sonnet 4.6 ================================================================ THE OFFICIAL CONCLUSION ----------------------- The FTD record card and AF Form 112 both record UNIDENTIFIED (or UNKNOWN on the Form 112). The classification is notable primarily for what the reporting intelligence officer himself wrote on the AF Form 112 immediately below his signature: "Possibility -- balloons, being carried with the wind, or paper, etc." Captain Schiebel was not convinced he had an anomaly. The UNIDENTIFIED designation was carried forward despite his own stated doubt, reflecting insufficient data to confirm the balloon hypothesis rather than affirmative evidence of something genuinely unexplained. WHAT THE EVIDENCE SHOWS ----------------------- At 1505 EST on March 21, 1953, two Ground Observer Corps members -- Mr. Holup and Mr. Jack O'Neil -- were at GOC Post PN 00 Black in Elmira, New York when they spotted six disc-type objects directly overhead through binoculars. The objects were close together without specific formation, moving rather fast northward at very high altitude. The observation lasted only several seconds before the objects were lost. The sky was clear. Winds were from 180 degrees (south) at 10 knots -- blowing northward. The 655th ACW Squadron at Watertown received the report and ordered fighters in the general vicinity to investigate. Two aircraft orbited the area for approximately 20 minutes and found nothing. The objects were not detected on radar at any time. The FLYOBRPT was transmitted within two days, and ATIC's Joint Messageform requesting an AF Form 112 with specific follow-up questions arrived within four days -- relatively prompt handling for a routine GOC report. POINTS OF INTEREST / WHAT GIVES ME PAUSE ----------------------------------------- Very little in this case resists the balloon or debris hypothesis. The wind direction is the critical data point: southerly winds at 10 knots would carry any airborne object northward -- exactly the direction the objects traveled. Six objects loosely clustered with no fixed formation is consistent with a cluster of balloons or wind-borne debris rather than structured craft in formation. The very brief observation duration (several seconds) means the disc description carries limited evidentiary weight; binoculars at very high altitude for only seconds produce impressions, not reliable shape identifications. The observer qualifications are the strongest argument for taking the report at face value. GOC members were trained specifically to identify and report aerial objects -- their civilian role in the air defense network required this. They would be expected to recognize standard aircraft and weather balloons. That said, six objects at very high altitude observed for only seconds is at the limits of what any observer can reliably characterize. ATIC's three follow-up questions reveal what the investigators were actually thinking: could the jets have been misidentified as the UFOs? The answer -- observers didn't notice the investigating aircraft -- eliminates that specific hypothesis but doesn't address the balloon question Schiebel himself raised. BOTTOM LINE ----------- The UNIDENTIFIED classification on this case is weaker than most. The intelligence officer's own handwritten analysis identifies a plausible and wind-consistent mundane explanation that the file simply could not confirm or deny. A brief observation through binoculars of loosely clustered objects moving exactly where the wind would carry them, undetected by radar and not reacquired by investigating fighters, is more readily explained by balloons or debris than by anything anomalous. The honest evaluation here is closer to "Insufficient Data for Evaluation" or "Possibly Balloon" than UNIDENTIFIED. This case illustrates the classification problem the archive faces at the margins: when investigators couldn't establish a mundane explanation, UNIDENTIFIED became the default even when the available evidence pointed in a mundane direction. Schiebel's handwritten note is the most candid element in the file, and it points toward a conclusion the checkbox system didn't record. ================================================================ https://glitchymatrix.com/bluebook/ GlitchyMatrix Project Blue Book Archive All 10,808 declassified USAF UFO case files, 1945-1969 ================================================================ ----------------------------------------------------------------